Person

Sholto Douglas

AI researcher at Anthropic (reinforcement learning scaling)

Score: —
95% interval: —
Resolved: 0
Record (C–P–W): 0–0–0
Open: 1
Too vague: 0

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Track record

Open (1)

OpenPrediction

"Almost guaranteed": a drop-in white-collar worker within five years, "very likely in two" (May 2025)

“But the one that I feel we're almost guaranteed to get—this is a strong statement to make—is one where at the very least, you get a drop-in white collar worker at some point in the…”

said May 22, 2025 · Due in 1319 days

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SiPoly, “Sholto Douglas: AI predictions and promises track record.” https://sipoly.si/who/sholto-douglas/ (accessed October 11, 2026).

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SiPoly. (n.d.). Sholto Douglas: AI predictions and promises track record [Forecaster profile]. sipoly.si. Retrieved October 11, 2026, from https://sipoly.si/who/sholto-douglas/

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