Person
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Author of "Situational Awareness"; founder of Situational Awareness LP; former OpenAI researcher
- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 2
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (2)
Individual training clusters costing hundreds of billions of dollars by 2028
“We’re on the path to individual training clusters costing $100s of billions by 2028—clusters requiring power equivalent to a small/medium US state and more expensive than the Inter…”
"Strikingly plausible" that models do the work of an AI researcher/engineer by 2027
“I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.”
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