Person

Ted Sanders

Forecaster; co-author (with Ari Allyn-Feuer) of "Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely" (2023)

Score: —
95% interval: —
Resolved: 0
Record (C–P–W): 0–0–0
Open: 1
Too vague: 0

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Open (1)

OpenPrediction

Transformative AGI by 2043 is less than 1% likely

“we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be <1%.”

said Jun 6, 2023 · Due in 6293 days

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