OpenPrediction
No country takes a decisive lead in the GenAI race in 2026
“No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race” .”
Policy & regulation
18 claims
OpenPrediction
AI will be an election issue in the 2026 US midterms
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”
OpenPrediction
A 10,000-person anti-AI protest in Washington, DC by late 2026
“Many people fear that the next wave of AIs will come for their jobs; there is a 10,000 person anti-AI protest in DC.”
KeptPromise
AI Action Plan within 180 days (EO 14179)
“Within 180 days of this order, the Assistant to the President for Science and Technology (APST), the Special Advisor for AI and Crypto, and the Assistant to the President for Natio…”
PendingPromise
UK to expand its AI Research Resource compute "by at least 20x by 2030"
“Expand the capacity of the AI Research Resource ( AIRR ) by at least 20x by 2030 – starting within 6 months.”
CorrectPrediction
Generative-AI copyright lawsuits will continue throughout 2025
“Copyright lawsuits over generative AI will continue throughout the year.”
KeptPromise
Apple Intelligence on iPhone and iPad in the EU starting April 2025
“This April, Apple Intelligence features will start to roll out to iPhone and iPad users in the EU.”
KeptPromise
GPAI rules apply from 2 August 2025
“Chapter III Section 4, Chapter V, Chapter VII and Chapter XII and Article 78 shall apply from 2 August 2025”
Partly keptPromise
GPAI codes of practice ready "at the latest by 2 May 2025"
“Codes of practice shall be ready at the latest by 2 May 2025.”
PendingPromise
Binding regulation on the most powerful AI model developers
“Labour will ensure the safe development and use of AI models by introducing binding regulation on the handful of companies developing the most powerful AI models”
KeptPromise
Seoul commitment: publish a safety framework before the France summit
“to demonstrate how they have achieved this by publishing a safety framework focused on severe risks by the upcoming AI Summit in France.”
KeptPromise
Seoul commitment: publish a safety framework before the France summit
“to demonstrate how they have achieved this by publishing a safety framework focused on severe risks by the upcoming AI Summit in France.”
KeptPromise
EO 14110: NIST generative-AI companion to the AI Risk Management Framework within 270 days
“Within 270 days of the date of this order, to help ensure the development of safe, secure, and trustworthy AI systems, the Secretary of Commerce, acting through the Director of the…”
KeptPromise
EO 14110: launch a National AI Research Resource pilot within 90 days
“Within 90 days of the date of this order, in coordination with the heads of agencies that the Director of NSF deems appropriate, launch a pilot program implementing the National AI…”
KeptPromise
EO 14110: AI risk assessments for critical infrastructure within 90 days
“Within 90 days of the date of this order, and at least annually thereafter, the head of each agency with relevant regulatory authority over critical infrastructure”
KeptPromise
EO 14110: frontier-model developers must report to the government within 90 days
“Within 90 days of the date of this order, to ensure and verify the continuous availability of safe, reliable, and effective AI in accordance with the Defense Production Act”
OpenPrediction
A major city bans human-driven cars from part of town for driverless cars: 2027 to 2031
“A major city bans parking and cars with drivers from a non-trivial portion of a city so that driverless cars have free reign in that area. NET 2027 BY 2031”
CorrectPrediction
First freeway lane reserved for truly driverless cars: not before 2021
“First dedicated lane where only cars in truly driverless mode are allowed on a public freeway. NET 2021”
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