- Score
- 0%
- 95% interval
- 0%–49%
- Resolved
- 4
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–4
- Open
- 1
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 4). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Resolved (4)
AI smarter than any one human "around the end of next year"
“My guess is we’ll have AI smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year”
Basic functionality for Level 5 autonomy complete in 2020
“I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.”
"Over a million robotaxis on the road" in 2020
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we’ll have over a million robotaxis on the road”
Fully autonomous LA-to-New York demo drive "by the end of next year"
“we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let’s say dropping you off in Time Square in New York, and then havin…”
Open (1)
AGI, defined as smarter than the smartest human, "within two years"
“If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it’s probably next year, within two years”
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