- Score
- 67%
- 95% interval
- 30%–93%
- Resolved
- 5
- Record (C–P–W)
- 3–1–1
- Open
- 5
- Too vague
- 0
Ranked on leaderboards (5 resolved claims). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Promise tracker
Kept 3 Partly 1 Broken 1 Pending 3
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Resolved (5)
Open-weight reasoning model "in the coming months"
“we are excited to release a powerful new open-weight language model with reasoning in the coming months”
GPT-4.5 in "weeks", GPT-5 in "months"
“Altman didn’t say exactly when GPT-4.5 and GPT-5 might be released, but he did give a vague estimate of “weeks / months.””
o3-mini "around the end of January"
“Altman said the company plans to launch that model "around the end of January," with o3 following "shortly after that."”
New GPT-4o Voice Mode alpha "in the coming weeks"
“We’ll roll out a new version of Voice Mode with GPT‑4o in alpha within ChatGPT Plus in the coming weeks.”
20% of secured compute to superalignment over four years
“We are dedicating 20% of the compute we’ve secured to date over the next four years to solving the problem of superintelligence alignment.”
Open (5)
"Pretty confident" of AI that makes more significant discoveries in 2028 and beyond
“In 2028 and beyond, we are pretty confident we will have systems that can make more significant discoveries”
In 2026 AI will be able to make "very small discoveries"
“In 2026, we expect AI to be capable of making very small discoveries.”
A fully automated "legitimate AI researcher" by 2028
“internally, OpenAI is tracking toward achieving an intern-level research assistant by September 2026 and a fully automated “legitimate AI researcher” by 2028”
First 200 MW of Stargate UAE expected to go live in 2026
“A 1GW Stargate UAE cluster in Abu Dhabi with 200MW expected to go live in 2026”
Stargate: $500B of US AI infrastructure over four years
“The Stargate Project is a new company which intends to invest $500 billion over the next four years building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.”
Embed this scorecard
Right of reply: send a correction or response.