- Score
- 100%
- 95% interval
- 21%–100%
- Resolved
- 1
- Record (C–P–W)
- 1–0–0
- Open
- 3
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 1). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Resolved (1)
By 2025, AIs play Diplomacy as well as human experts
“After years of tinkering and incremental progress, AIs can now play Diplomacy as well as human experts .”
Open (3)
Median 2029 for full coding automation (as of Feb 2026)
“Mid-2028 is earlier than Daniel’s current median prediction for full coding automation (2029), but the 2-year takeoff to superintelligence is slower than his median takeoff speed o…”
Strong AGI expected "in the next 5-10 years" (from Nov 2025)
“The companies seem to think strong AGI is just a few years away, and while I'm not as bullish as they are, I do expect it to happen in the next 5-10 years.”
A new chip shortage in 2026
“We’re in a new chip shortage. Just when the fabs thought they had caught up to demand…”
Embed this scorecard
Right of reply: send a correction or response.