- Score
- 100%
- 95% interval
- 34%–100%
- Resolved
- 2
- Record (C–P–W)
- 2–0–0
- Open
- 9
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 2). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Resolved (2)
First freeway lane reserved for truly driverless cars: not before 2021
“First dedicated lane where only cars in truly driverless mode are allowed on a public freeway. NET 2021”
Dual-use (driver/driverless) taxi service in 10 major US cities: not before 2025
“Such "taxi" services where the cars are also used with drivers at other times and with extended geography, in 10 major US cities NET 2025”
Open (9)
Only Waymo and Zoox will matter for US self-driving through 2035
“In the US the players that will determine whether self driving cars are successful or abandoned are #1 Waymo (Google) and #2 Zoox (Amazon). No one else matters.”
A major city bans human-driven cars from part of town for driverless cars: 2027 to 2031
“A major city bans parking and cars with drivers from a non-trivial portion of a city so that driverless cars have free reign in that area. NET 2027 BY 2031”
Deployed "last 10 yards" delivery robots: not before 2028
“Lab demo: NET 2025 Deployed systems: NET 2028”
Dexterous robot hands generally available: not before 2030 (hopefully by 2040)
“Dexterous robot hands generally available. NET 2030 BY 2040 (I hope!)”
Affordable home-navigating robot: not before 2035
“Expensive product: NET 2030 Affordable product: NET 2035 What is easy for humans is still very, very hard for robots.”
Home-navigating robot as an expensive product: not before 2030
“A robot that can navigate around just about any US home, with its steps, its clutter, its narrow pathways between furniture, etc. Lab demo: NET 2026 Expensive product: NET 2030”
Multi-task physical-assistance robot for the elderly: not before 2028
“A robot that can provide physical assistance to the elderly over multiple tasks (e.g., getting into and out of bed, washing, using the toilet, etc.) rather than just a point soluti…”
Generally agreed "next big thing" beyond deep learning: by 2027
“Emergence of the generally agreed upon "next big thing" in AI beyond deep learning. NET 2023”
Driverless taxi service in 50 of the 100 biggest US cities: not before 2028
“Such "taxi" service as above in 50 of the 100 biggest US cities. NET 2028”
Embed this scorecard
Right of reply: send a correction or response.