OpenPrediction
40% chance of AGI (replacing the majority of human jobs) by end of 2026
“p(AGI by eoy 2026) = 40%”
Context: Same post; same definition of AGI.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: AI that, at runtime and for less than a human costs, can replace humans in the power-weighted majority of jobs exists by 31 Dec 2026.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 84 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 40%
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
