Organization
LEAP expert panel
Forecasting Research Institute's Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (median expert forecasts)
- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 5
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (5)
~30% of physics, materials science and medicine papers will engage AI by 2030 (from 3% in 2022)
“Experts predict a 10x increase (from 3% to ~30%) in AI-engaged papers in Physics, 10 Materials Science, 11 and Medicine, 12 between 2022 and 2030.”
AI will use 7% of US electricity in 2030
“That rises to 7% of all electricity consumption in 2030”
AI will use 4% of US electricity in 2027 (7% in 2030)
“The median expert predicts that 4% of U.S. electricity consumption will be used for training and deploying AI systems in 2027.”
20%: AI solves or substantially helps solve a Millennium Prize Problem by 2030
“Experts estimate a 10% chance that AI will solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027, 2 up to 20% by 2030”
10%: AI solves or substantially helps solve a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027
“Experts estimate a 10% chance that AI will solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027”
Embed this scorecard
Right of reply: send a correction or response.