CorrectPrediction
80%: average person can hail a self-driving car in at least one US city by 2023
“Average person can hail a self-driving car in at least one US city: 80%”
Context: "Five More Years" on Slate Star Codex; predictions to be graded 15 Feb 2023.
How we judge it
By 15 Feb 2023 a member of the public can hail a driverless car in a US city.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Correct ()
- Stated probability
- 80%
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- Brier 0.040 → 0.96 points
