OpenPrediction
1.6% of recently approved drug sales in 2027 will come from AI-discovered drugs (5% by 2030)
“Experts predict that 1.6% of recently approved drug sales in 2027 will come from AI-discovered drugs”
Context: FRI LEAP Wave 2 (Nov 2025), median expert. The same panel forecast 5% by 2030 and 25% by 2040.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if credible 2027 analyses put the share of sales of recently approved drugs attributable to AI-discovered drugs at 0.8-3%.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 812 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- What changes for
- Healthcare Research & science
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