OpenPrediction
~35% probability of transformative AI by 2036
“~35% probability by 2036 (a ~3x likelihood ratio [3] vs 15%).”
Context: Ajeya Cotra, "Two-year update on my personal AI timelines" (AI Alignment Forum, Aug 2, 2022). TAI = "transformative AI", AI that drives a transition comparable to the industrial revolution.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if transformative AI (as defined in her report) exists by 31 Dec 2036.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 3734 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 35%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- What changes for
- Everyone
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