A model that seems like "a generally well educated human" in an hour's conversation in 2-3 years
“In terms of someone looks at the model and even if you talk to it for an hour or so, it's basically like a generally well educated human, that could be not very far away at all. I think that could happen in two or three years.”
Context: Dwarkesh Podcast (Aug 8, 2023).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by Aug 2026, a released model converses for an hour or so like a generally well-educated human.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Correct ()
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- Score
- 1.0 points × weight 2
Evidence & grader’s note
In a pre-registered three-party Turing test, persona-prompted GPT-4.5 was picked as the human 73% of the time. Those were 5-minute conversations, not an hour, so this is strong but indirect evidence.
Evidence timeline
Dated entries from the claim’s own record (statement, verdict, later developments) and sourced entries added by editors. Each links to its source; none changes the verdict.
- What changes for
- Education
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