OpenPrediction
AI able to replace more than half of humans "within 5 years" (from May 2025)
“I think AI will be able to replace >50% of humans within 5 years.”
Context: Reply on X.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 23 May 2030, AI can do the jobs of more than half of the human workforce at lower cost (capability, not necessarily deployment).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1320 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
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