OpenPrediction
AI will write a bestselling book by 2049 (median)
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053).”
Context: Survey of 352 researchers who published at NIPS/ICML 2015, run in 2016 (Grace et al., arXiv 1705.08807, May 2017). Years are aggregate medians (50% chance).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by end-2049, an AI-written book (credited as such) reaches the New York Times bestseller list.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 8484 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
