OpenPrediction
Transformative AGI by 2043 is less than 1% likely
“we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be <1%.”
Context: Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest entry with Ari Allyn-Feuer (Jun 2023). "Transformative AGI" means AI that can do nearly all valuable tasks at human cost or less.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if by end-2043 AI can perform nearly all economically valuable tasks at or below human cost (the contest definition).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 6292 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 1%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
