OpenPrediction
"Strikingly plausible" that models do the work of an AI researcher/engineer by 2027
“I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.”
Context: "Situational Awareness", chapter I: From GPT-4 to AGI (June 2024).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 31 Dec 2027, AI systems can do the job of a frontier-lab AI researcher/engineer (not just assist), per lab statements and independent evaluations.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 449 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
