OpenPrediction
Long Bet: no computer will pass the Turing Test by 2029
“By 2029 no computer – or "machine intelligence" – will have passed the Turing Test.”
Context: Long Bet #1, $20,000, Kapor vs Ray Kurzweil, under detailed terms (three judges, two-hour interviews).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: as defined in the Long Bets terms: correct if no machine passes the Kapor-Kurzweil Turing Test protocol by the end of 2029.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1180 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
Evidence & grader’s note
Short, less strict tests have been passed (GPT-4.5 judged human 73% of the time in 5-minute tests, Jones & Bergen 2025), but the bet's protocol has not been run.
