OpenPrediction
Deployed "last 10 yards" delivery robots: not before 2028
“Lab demo: NET 2025 Deployed systems: NET 2028”
Context: From Brooks's dated predictions table first published 1 Jan 2018 ("My Dated Predictions"). NET = "no earlier than" (correct if it has not happened before that year); BY = "by that year". The item: a robot that carries a package from a vehicle into a house and puts it inside the front door.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if no commercially deployed robot does vehicle-to-front-door package delivery before 1 Jan 2028.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 449 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
