OpenPrediction
AGI, defined as smarter than the smartest human, "within two years"
“If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it’s probably next year, within two years”
Context: Same interview as above.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 8 Apr 2026, an AI is smarter than the smartest human across domains.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Overdue by 183 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
Evidence & grader’s note
Past due – in the grading queue. Grade together with the "end of next year" claim for consistency.
