OpenPrediction
Maybe 50% chance of AGI in five to ten years
“In the next five to 10 years, there’s maybe a 50 percent chance that we'll have what we define as AGI.”
Context: WIRED "Big Interview". AGI defined in the interview as a system exhibiting all human cognitive capabilities.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 4 Jun 2035, a system exhibits all the cognitive capabilities humans have, per broad expert consensus.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 3161 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 50%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
