OpenPrediction
Powerful AI "could come as early as 2026"
“I think it could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer.”
Context: Essay "Machines of Loving Grace" (October 2024).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: a system meeting the essay's "powerful AI" definition exists by 31 Dec 2026.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 83 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
Evidence & grader’s note
The claim is hedged ("could come as early as 2026", with "ways it could take much longer"), and it will be graded with that in mind. It is rated specificity 1 (vague or hedged), so it carries less weight in scores.
