OpenPrediction
"Only two years away from the first AI feature" (Oct 2025)
“I think we’re only two years away from the first AI feature.”
Context: Paul Schrader in a Vanity Fair interview (24 Oct 2025); Variety reported it the same day.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if by 24 Oct 2027 a feature-length film (at least 75 minutes) made predominantly with generative AI gets a commercial theatrical or major-streamer release.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 378 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
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