OpenPrediction
10% (and rising) chance that Grok 5 achieves AGI
“My estimate of the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising”
Context: Post on X (Oct 18, 2025).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if Grok 5, once released, is broadly recognized as AGI by independent experts (not just by xAI). Scored at the end of 2026, or once Grok 5 has been out for 6 months if later.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 81 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 10%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- What changes for
- Everyone
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