- Score
- 100%
- 95% interval
- 68%–100%
- Resolved
- 8
- Record (C–P–W)
- 8–0–0
- Open
- 7
- Too vague
- 1
Ranked on leaderboards (8 resolved claims). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Resolved (8)
Generative-AI copyright lawsuits will continue throughout 2025
“Copyright lawsuits over generative AI will continue throughout the year.”
Hallucinations "will continue to haunt generative AI" in 2025
“Hallucinations (which should really be called confabulations) will continue to haunt generative AI.”
2025: humanoid hype, but nothing "remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot"
“Humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release anything to remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot .”
Less than 10% of the workforce replaced by AI in 2025
“Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI. Probably less than 5%.”
Few if any radiologists replaced by AI in 2025
“Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI (contra Hinton’s infamous 2016 prediction).”
No system will solve more than 4 of the Marcus-Brundage tasks in 2025
“No single system will solve more than 4 of the AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025.”
No AGI in 2025
“We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.”
By end of 2024: no robust solution to hallucinations
“No robust solution to hallucinations”
Open (7)
2025 will be seen as the year of "peak bubble" for generative AI
“2025 will be known as the year of the peak bubble , and also the moment at which Wall Street began to lose confidence in generative AI.”
No country takes a decisive lead in the GenAI race in 2026
“No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race” .”
AI will be an election issue in the 2026 US midterms
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”
Home humanoid robots "all demo and very little product" in 2026
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”
No AGI in 2026 (or 2027)
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”
Truly driverless cars limited to a modest number of cities in 2025
“Truly driverless cars, in which no human is required to attend to traffic, will continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West, mainly in good weath…”
Bet (10:1 odds): AI will not do 8 of 10 hard tasks by the end of 2027
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice;…”
Too vague / not scored (1)
AI agents hyped in 2025 but far from reliable
“AI “Agents” will be endlessly hyped throughout 2025 but far from reliable, except possibly in very narrow use cases.”
Embed this scorecard
Right of reply: send a correction or response.