OpenPrediction
Bet: AI will do at least 8 of Marcus's 10 hard tasks by the end of 2027
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice”
Context: Brundage took the bullish side of a 10:1 bet with Gary Marcus (Dec 2024). The 10:1 odds imply he saw at least roughly a 9% chance.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct for Brundage if the agreed judging panel finds AI can do at least 8 of the 10 tasks by end-2027.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 631 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
