OpenPrediction
Long Bet: AI will not lift US productivity growth above 1.8%/yr in the 2020s
“Will robots and AI bring a new revival comparable to the post-1995 digital revival? A reason for doubt is that a doubling of the U.S. stock of robots in the past decade failed to revive manufacturing productivity growth”
Context: Gordon's argument on Long Bet #868 (2021): he bets that private nonfarm productivity growth will NOT average over 1.8%/yr in 2020Q1-2029Q4.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: Gordon is right if BLS private nonfarm business productivity grows at an average of 1.8%/yr or less from 2020Q1 to 2029Q4.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1269 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
