OpenPrediction
AGI "one to 10 times smarter than humans" in the next three to five years
“Son said this tech is likely to be one to 10 times smarter than humans and will arrive in the next three-to-five years, earlier than he had anticipated.”
Context: SoftBank annual general meeting (June 21, 2024), as reported by CNBC (live translation from Japanese).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: AGI (AI at least as capable as humans across most cognitive tasks) exists by 21 Jun 2029.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 986 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
