OpenPrediction
Individual training clusters costing hundreds of billions of dollars by 2028
“We’re on the path to individual training clusters costing $100s of billions by 2028—clusters requiring power equivalent to a small/medium US state and more expensive than the International Space Station.”
Context: "Situational Awareness", IIIa. Racing to the Trillion-Dollar Cluster (June 2024).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 31 Dec 2028, at least one single training cluster (one campus) costs $100B or more, per credible reporting or trackers.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 815 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
