OpenPrediction
AGI "slightly after" 2030, not quite by 2030
“I don’t think we’ll quite get there by 2030, so my sense is it’s slightly after that”
Context: Lex Fridman Podcast #471 (June 5, 2025), on the DeepMind founders' "couple decades" AGI timeline from 2010.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if AGI (as broadly recognized) has not arrived by the end of 2030 but does arrive by about 2033.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 2640 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
