OpenPrediction
Within five years you will "simply tell your device" what you want instead of using apps
“In the next five years, this will change completely. You won’t have to use different apps for different tasks. You’ll simply tell your device, in everyday language, what you want to do.”
Context: Gates Notes, "AI is about to completely change how you use computers" (Nov 9, 2023).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 9 Nov 2028, mainstream consumers mostly accomplish multi-app tasks by telling an AI agent in natural language, rather than opening separate apps.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 763 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
