OpenPrediction
Truly capable AI agents are about "a decade" away, not "the year of agents"
“I feel like the problems are tractable, they’re surmountable, but they’re still difficult. If I just average it out, it just feels like a decade to me.”
Context: Dwarkesh Podcast ("AGI is still a decade away"), answering what will take a decade: agents that work like a reliable employee or intern.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: "about a decade" means agents that can be hired like a reliable employee or intern for general knowledge work do not arrive before about Oct 2030 and do arrive by about Oct 2035. Scored at the end of the window.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 3296 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
