OpenPrediction
"Something pretty clearly superhuman in most respects by end of 2027"
“very roughly, something pretty clearly superhuman in most respects by end of 2027 + also very big stuff before then”
Context: Reply on X to a question about his timelines ("Hasn't changed much lately").
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 31 Dec 2027, an AI system outperforms top human experts in most cognitive domains, per broad expert consensus.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 449 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
