CorrectPrediction

30%: self-driving hail in five of the ten largest US cities by 2023

“…in at least five of ten largest US cities: 30%”

Scott AlexanderWriter, Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex TenSaid · Source: slatestarcodex.com · Archived copy

How we judge it

By 15 Feb 2023 public driverless hail available in 5 of the 10 largest US cities.

Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology

Said
Resolve by
Verdict
Correct ()
Stated probability
30%
Specificity
3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
Score
Brier 0.090 → 0.91 points

Evidence & grader’s note

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