WrongPrediction
AI smarter than any one human "around the end of next year"
“My guess is we’ll have AI smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year”
Context: X Spaces interview with Nicolai Tangen, reported by Ars Technica (Apr 9, 2024).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by ~31 Dec 2025 (grace to 31 Mar 2026), an AI system outperforms the best human in essentially every cognitive domain.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Wrong ()
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- Score
- 0.0 points × weight 2
Evidence & grader’s note
- LessWrong "2025 in AI predictions": "Mostly false"
- ARC Prize: ARC-AGI-2 (tasks easy for humans, hard for AI)
"Jagged" capabilities make this contestable; proposed wrong because AI still trailed top humans in many domains.
