OpenPrediction
AI will add less than 0.55% to total factor productivity over 10 years
“Consequently, predicted TFP gains over the next 10 years are even more modest and are predicted to be less than 0.55%.”
Context: "The Simple Macroeconomics of AI" (MIT working paper, Apr 5, 2024). The headline upper bound is 0.71%; this is his adjusted estimate.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 2034, mainstream estimates (e.g. BLS/Fed/OECD decompositions) attribute less than 0.55% cumulative US TFP gain to AI over 2024-2034.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 3003 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
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