- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 1
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (1)
OpenPrediction
AGI "likely to emerge in the next four years" (from Oct 2024)
“the birth of artificial general intelligence, or A.G.I., which is likely to emerge in the next four years”
Embed / Cite
The embedded card is live and shows the current score and record, with the date the data was read.
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