Person

David "davidad" Dalrymple

Programme Director, UK Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA), Safeguarded AI

Score: —
95% interval: —
Resolved: 0
Record (C–P–W): 0–0–0
Open: 1
Too vague: 0

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No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.

Track record

Open (1)

OpenPrediction

"Probably" by Dec 2026 the recursive self-improvement loop on algorithms will be closed

“I would guess that by December 2026 the RSI loop on algorithms will probably be closed, resulting in another inflection point to an even faster pace, perhaps around 70-80 day doubl…”

said Dec 20, 2025 · Due in 81 days

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Plain citation

SiPoly, “David "davidad" Dalrymple: AI predictions and promises track record.” https://sipoly.si/who/davidad/ (accessed October 11, 2026).

APA style

SiPoly. (n.d.). David "davidad" Dalrymple: AI predictions and promises track record [Forecaster profile]. sipoly.si. Retrieved October 11, 2026, from https://sipoly.si/who/davidad/

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