- Score
- 29%
- 95% interval
- 2%–90%
- Resolved
- 1
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–1
- Open
- 0
- Too vague
- 0
- Mean Brier
- 0.706 (1)
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 1). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
| Stated probability | Forecasts | Mean stated | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | 1 | 16% | 100% |
| 20–40% | 0 | — | — |
| 40–60% | 0 | — | — |
| 60–80% | 0 | — | — |
| 80–100% | 0 | — | — |
Track record
Resolved (1)
WrongPrediction
>16% that AI has IMO-gold capability by end of 2025
“I'll stand by a >16% probability of the technical capability existing by end of 2025”
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