OpenPrediction
A 10,000-person anti-AI protest in Washington, DC by late 2026
“Many people fear that the next wave of AIs will come for their jobs; there is a 10,000 person anti-AI protest in DC.”
Context: AI 2027 scenario (Apr 3, 2025), which the authors called their "best guess" and later clarified had 2027 as the modal year, with somewhat longer medians. Section "Late 2026".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if a protest against AI with roughly 10,000 or more participants (credible media estimates) takes place in Washington, DC by 31 Dec 2026.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 83 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
