OpenPrediction
10% chance all human occupations are fully automatable by 2037 (50% by 2116)
“However, the chance of all human occupations becoming fully automatable was forecast to reach 10% by 2037, and 50% as late as 2116”
Context: Survey of 2,778 researchers who published at top AI venues, fielded Oct 2023 (Grace et al., "Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI", arXiv 2401.02843, Jan 2024). Aggregate forecasts, "if science continues undisrupted".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if by end-2037 every human occupation could be fully automated by AI at lower cost than human workers.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 4101 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 10%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
