OpenPrediction
Bet (10:1 odds): AI will not do 8 of 10 hard tasks by the end of 2027
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary’s choice.”
Context: "Where will AI be at the end of 2027? A bet" with Miles Brundage (Marcus on AI, Dec 2024). Tasks include Pulitzer-caliber books, Oscar-caliber screenplays, Nobel-caliber discoveries, and bug-free 10,000-line code.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct for Marcus if the agreed judging panel finds AI can do fewer than 8 of the 10 tasks by end-2027; resolved by the panel's ruling.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 630 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
