OpenPrediction
"GPT 2030" will likely be superhuman at coding, hacking and math
“GPT 2030 will likely be superhuman at various specific tasks, including coding, hacking, and math, and potentially protein design”
Context: Blog post "What will GPT-2030 look like?" (Bounded Regret, Jun 2023). He called properties 1-5 his "median bet".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by end-2030, the best available AI system beats top human experts on standard measures of coding (e.g. top competitive-programming ranks), offensive security, and mathematics.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1545 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
