CorrectPrediction
80%: MIRI still exists in 2023
“6. MIRI still exists in 2023: 80%”
Context: Slate Star Codex, "Predictions for 2018-2023" (Feb 2018), AI section.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if the Machine Intelligence Research Institute still exists as an organization in 2023.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Correct ()
- Stated probability
- 80%
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- Brier 0.040 → 0.96 points
Evidence & grader’s note
Self-graded by Scott Alexander; MIRI existed in 2023. Brier-based score 0.96.
