Broken at deadlinePromise
Came true late: · 7 weeks after the deadline
Grok 3 by the end of 2024, after training on 100k H100s
“Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special”
Context: Elon Musk on X (Jul 1, 2024), replying to a post about Grok 2.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: xAI publicly releases Grok 3 by 31 Dec 2024.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Broken at deadline ()
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- 0.0 points × weight 3
Later developments
Came true late: · 7 weeks after the deadline
Verdict at the deadline: Broken (). That verdict, and the score, stay as they are; this line records that it happened later. Methodology
xAI released Grok 3 (beta) on 17 Feb 2025.
- xAI: Grok 3 Beta, the Age of Reasoning Agents (Feb 2025)
- TechCrunch: xAI releases its latest flagship model, Grok 3 (Feb 17, 2025)
Last checked for later developments .
Evidence & grader’s note
Grok 3 was first released in February 2025, about seven weeks late.
