WrongPrediction
53.5% that Robin Hanson wins his bet that GPT revenue stays under $1B
“35. GPT Revenue (Hanson Wins Bet that GPT Revenue < $1B) 53.5% 0% 1.07 32”
Context: Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), June-Oct 2022; group median forecasts as reported by the Forecasting Research Institute in "Assessing Near-Term Accuracy in the XPT" (2025).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if Hanson wins his bet that GPT revenue stays below $1B (per the XPT question).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Wrong ()
- Stated probability
- 54%
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- Brier 0.286 → 0.71 points
Evidence & grader’s note
GPT revenue far exceeded $1B, so Hanson lost. Brier-based score about 0.71.
