OpenPrediction
AGI "will probably get developed during this president's term"
“AGI will probably get developed during this president's term, and getting that right seems really important.”
Context: Bloomberg Businessweek interview (Jan 2025), as quoted by Business Insider; "this president" is Donald Trump (term ends 20 Jan 2029).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: AGI (as broadly recognized, not merely self-declared) is developed before 20 Jan 2029.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 835 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
