OpenPrediction
"In five years" unemployment levels never seen before: "Not talking about 10% … but 99%"
“In five years, we’re looking at levels of unemployment we’ve never seen before”
Context: Diary of a CEO podcast (Sep 4, 2025), as reported by Business Insider; he continued: "Not talking about 10%, which is scary, but 99%."
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if by Sep 2030 the US unemployment rate exceeds its post-1948 record (14.8%). Full credit for his headline "99%" would need near-total unemployment.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1426 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
