OpenPrediction
"Real AI" (beyond today's chatbots) arrives in about 5 years
“No. We’re not there yet. But the real AI is coming. I think we’ve got about 5 years.”
Context: "Announcing The Real AI" blog (Sep 18, 2025). He adds that he expects it to "lead to human extinction, probably within a few years of its development."
How we judge it
Our interpretation: AI that can broadly replace human cognitive work arrives by about Sep 2030 (we allow a year either way).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1805 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
